Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, Boise witnessed an unprecedented influx in out-of-state migration coupled with historic rent spikes. Today, however, the City of Trees’ breakneck ascent into the Mountain West limelight is cooling, marked by notable declines in median rent rates and stubbornly high home prices.
Nestled in the bucolic foothills of the Rockies, Boise’s allure — from its mid-size city livability, affordability and easy access to abounding nature — was a win-win for out-of-staters, including an “untethered class” of remote workers seeking respite from pricey West Coast metros.
But Boise’s pandemic-propelled growth has proven unsustainable. The city’s housing boom has since subsided. Property values remain elevated, pricing first-time home buyers out of the market, all amid a rental shortage. To make sense of it all, Rent. has mined the data, and the story it tells may be an early indicator of what to expect in the near term throughout the Mountain West region.
Current snapshot
With a population of 236,634, Boise — Idaho’s capital and the largest metropolitan area in the state — remains a magnet for newcomers. Low crime, high quality of life and a welcoming business environment have positioned the city as an appealing choice for a broad range of transplants, and are helping it secure its status as an emerging tech hub.
But despite what seemed like unstoppable growth just a few short years ago, rents in the region have cooled faster and sooner than most major metros in the nation. As of October, median rents in Boise stood at $1,723, marking a decrease of -19.75 percent compared to last year, when the rents were $2,147 — and a far cry from pandemic peaks, when rent prices soared to unprecedented highs.
Statewide in October, Idaho witnessed a −7.74 percent year-over-year decline in rent prices, according to Rent.com’s November 2023 Rent Report.
Pandemic-era booms
This year’s rent declines in Boise will no doubt offer a welcome respite for renters after a spell of rising rents during the pandemic. Between October 2020 and October 2021, average rents shot up by 74.69 percent, from roughly $1,651 to $2,885, as a professional class of remote workers flocked to Boise from pricey West Coast enclaves in California, Washington State and elsewhere in the country.
“During the height of Covid, we had properties rented at all-time highs, often with tenants signing leases sight unseen from out of state in a matter of hours from the time we posted an advertisement,” said Corby Goade, with Boise Turnkey, a local real estate and rental portfolio management company.
“Understandably so, it feels different in contrast to the fervor we saw during Covid. In Q4 of 2020, the vacancy rate was under 1 percent in some areas of our market, it was nearly impossible to keep up with demand and the volume of inquiries.”
Between 2020 and 2021, Greater Boise’s population grew from 764,718 to 795,268, a rise of 3.3 percent, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates. More than 64,000 people moved to Idaho in 2021, according to data from Idaho’s Transportation Department. Around 26,233 of those transplants came from California.
Amid the pandemic, Boise’s allure was attributed, in part, to a more open environment compared to Western cities like Portland or Seattle. Fewer restrictions on restaurants and retail spaces, along with an abundance of parks and forested foothills flanking the city, drew in renters from out of state amid strict nationwide lockdowns.
Goade said he has seen a recent decline in demand for higher-end properties with larger office and living spaces, which were sought-after amenities during the pandemic when renters were confined to remote work and learning. Today, renters are willing to trade in those extras for the cost savings, he said.
An emerging tech hub
Despite a steady return to the office nationally, Mountain West cities like Boise, known for its low cost of living, higher-than-average salaries and a comfortable work-life balance continue to be a draw for newcomers from out of state, including those in the tech sector.
While not quite yet poised to overtake Seattle or Austin, Boise has nonetheless positioned itself as an emerging tech hub. Even prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, inbound business migration to Boise was a driving force behind the city’s growth prospects.
Post-pandemic, the trend has continued. Already home to Hewlett Packard offices, memory chip manufacturing company Micron Technology announced multi-billion-dollar expansion in Boise in October.
The company recently broke ground on a $15 billion campus expansion — the largest private investment in Idaho’s history —which will incorporate more research capacity and semiconductor manufacturing along with an estimated 15,000 new jobs in the Boise area.
The influx of educated professionals from the tech sector, in addition to Boise’s “Zoomtown” appeal to remote workers during the pandemic, has driven up home prices as well. Median prices in Boise are currently at $515,000, according to data from Redfin.
Following two years of unprecedented demand, buyers are now apprehensive about steep home prices and generationally high mortgage rates, while having fewer sellers has diminished supply, keeping prices elevated.
And although apartments in Boise may be more affordable for middle- and lower-income renters than they were a year ago, a surge in demand has led to a scarcity of affordable housing options. According to data from Boise's Housing Portal, the city requires the addition of 2,772 new homes annually between 2021 and 2030 to address demand and maintain reasonable pricing.
During the six-month period between March and August of 2021, the City of Boise found that too few homes were being built at or below 80 percent of the area’s median income. In June, Boise City Council authorities approved new zoning reforms aimed at bolstering the supply of affordable housing and accommodating the city’s expanding population.
Declines across the region
Beyond Boise, year-on-year savings in the Mountain West are bringing back a degree of affordability to the region. In Spokane, WA, for example, rents have also seen declines, albeit more moderate. In September 2022, the median price of an apartment in Spokane was $1,740, compared to $1,664 in 2023, a price difference of $76.25, and an overall change of -4.38 percent.
Further afield, in Salt Lake City, rents fell by -5.65 percent year over year during the same period, with median rents down by $108.5, at $1,812, according to Rent.com data.
And in the Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise region, rents declined by -11.99 percent year on year, from $1,878 in 2022 to $1,653 this year.
The takeaway
Amid rapid pandemic-era housing booms, Boise and other Mountain West metros emerged as some of the most appealing regions in the U.S. for remote work, drawing in droves of out-of-staters seeking affordability, fewer pandemic-related restrictions and unbridled access to the outdoors.
Today, the panorama has changed in Boise and neighboring metros. Rent prices have stabilized, offering renters relief from record-breaking highs. While the region’s robust economy and livability remain a draw, high home prices and low inventory may deter would-be home buyers and lower-income renters.
