The South was the least popular geographic region among renters at the end of 2022, according to the Q4 2022 Rent. Migration Report. The region recorded a lead delta of -1.77 percent, the lowest showing of any geographic region in the country during this survey period.
It’s also a dramatic reversal from earlier in 2022, when Southern states earned the highest level of migration interest in the country. The region was top with renters in both the Q3 survey (when it recorded a 3.72 percent lead delta) and the Q2 survey (when it logged a 2.89 percent lead delta). The South took second place in renter interest nationwide in Q1 with a 0.23 percent lead delta.
How Rent. calculates migration interest
Rent. researchers gauge interest in rental listings by geographic location. User data is aggregated to learn where renters want to move to — and away from.
The Q4 report includes data from the fourth quarter of 2022, including the months of October, November and December. It’s combined into a single measure called the “lead delta” which measures the difference between the number of inbound and outbound leads as a proportion of all leads within a geographic area.
Geographies with more inbound leads have a positive lead delta, which indicates migration interest. A negative lead delta results from a greater number of outbound searches than inbound searches and means a place is a less popular destination.
Regional migration trends in the South
The South contains more states (16) than any other geographic region. It also includes The District of Columbia, which brings the total number of surveyed areas to 17. (Rent. uses the regional definitions dictated by the U.S. Census Bureau.) In a section of the country this large and geographically diverse, a few regional patterns emerge.
The South Atlantic states
Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia and the District of Columbia contain the bulk of the South’s most populous states and largest metropolitan areas. This sub-region (called a division by the U.S. Census Bureau) was also the least popular among renters in Q4. Six out of nine states reported negative migration interest during this survey period. Delaware’s consistent, double-digit migration interest (including a No.3 finish nationwide in Q4) was a notable exception.
This fits the national trend of increased consumer demand for lower rents, more space and additional amenities during the pandemic. Financial pressures — including rising inflation, a high cost of living in many cities and rent prices that jumped up 20 percent nationwide between December 2020 and December 2022 — prompted many renters to look for more spacious and affordable homes outside major population centers.
Eastern states
In contrast, smaller population states like Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi and Tennessee in the East showed strong migration interest in Q4 and throughout 2022. In fact, Kentucky’s -0.45 percent lead delta in Q4 was this division’s only negative showing all year.
Mississippi led the way with consistent, double-digit population growth in every quarter. It was the fifth most popular state for migration interest in the entire country during the last three months of 2022.
Western states
Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Texas were also popular with renters in 2022. Only Oklahoma saw negative migration interest in Q4.
Louisiana logged double-digit renter interest every quarter. Its Q4 numbers landed it in the No. 4 spot for migration interest nationwide.
Southern states with the largest positive lead deltas
Despite the fact that migration interest in the South is down overall, the majority of Southern states (9 out of 17) showed positive migration during the last quarter of 2022. Of these nine states, five recorded double-digit migration interest in Q4. And four out of these five enjoyed positive migration interest during every single quarter of 2022. Clearly, this is a long-term trend.
Most of the states that saw strong migration interest had smaller populations. Only Texas cracks the Top 10 largest states in the country at No. 2. Its closest competition is Tennessee at No. 16.
Delaware
Ranked just 45th in terms of population size, Delaware punched way above its weight with renters in Q4. Despite a population of just 989,948, Delaware nabbed a 32.16 percent lead delta at the end of 2022. That’s not only the best finish in the South—it’s also the third highest finish in the entire country among states with at least 5,000 leads.
Delaware was on a roll in 2022. It scored a 39.27 percent lead delta in Q3 and was the most popular migration destination in the entire country with 30.38 percent lead delta in Q2. It also logged a 21.84 percent lead delta in Q1.
Many of its leads (28.64 percent) came from Pennsylvania which recorded a -1.48 percent lead delta in Q4 and negative migration interest in three out of four quarters last year. Since the massive Philadelphia metro spans Delaware, Pennsylvania, Maryland and New Jersey, it’s probable that many renters opted to move across state lines but stay within the metropolitan area. Both Maryland and New Jersey also saw strong migration interest in Q4.
Louisiana
Louisiana sits right in the middle of the pack (25th) for population. But it finished No. 4 nationwide for migration interest in Q4 with a lead delta of 24.80 percent. That’s actually down from 35.71 percent in Q3, which earned it a third-place finish nationwide. (Both nationwide finishes were among states with 5,000 or more leads.)
The state recorded positive migration numbers during the first half of the year too. Louisiana scored an 18.95 percent lead delta in Q2 and a 12.86 percent lead delta in Q1.
Mississippi
Mississippi was also popular with renters throughout 2022. It was the fifth most popular state in the country for in-migration interest in Q4, with a 21.98 percent lead delta. (Again, that’s among states with over 5,000 leads.)
Like the majority of the states with a positive lead delta in Q4, Mississippi also enjoyed positive migration interest in every quarter of 2022. It scored a 29.80 percent lead delta in Q3, a 25.16 percent lead delta in Q2, and a 21.20 percent lead delta in Q1.
Tennessee
Renters were consistently interested in moving to Tennessee in 2022. The state scored 18.56 percent lead delta in Q4. That’s down from 24.10 percent the quarter before, but up from 12.24 percent in Q2 and 4.07 percent in Q1.
This interest comes despite a steep 17.03 percent rent price increase in Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin in Q3. This increase made the state’s largest metro the 20th most expensive metropolitan area in the nation.
South Carolina
The final Southern state with double-digit migration interest in Q4 is South Carolina. It recorded a 14.02 percent lead delta at the end of 2022.
This is actually the state’s lowest showing in last year. It’s down from 27.53 percent in Q3, 28.99 percent in Q2 and 23.06 percent in Q1.
Other Southern states with positive lead deltas
Four Southern states showed single-digit positive migration growth in Q4. They include Alabama (7.24 percent) and Arkansas (2.61 percent), which rank No. 24 and No. 33 in terms of overall population. But their Q4 numbers are actually their lowest showings of the year. These smaller population states showed consistent migration interest throughout 2022.
Migration interest trended in the opposite direction in the more heavily populated states of Maryland and Texas (ranked No. 18 and No. 2, respectively). A Q4 lead delta of 6.33 percent in Maryland and 0.45 percent in Texas represent those states’ strongest showings in 2022.
Some of this early outmigration interest may be financially based. Maryland and Texas each contain two of the most expensive metropolitan areas in the country, according to a Rent. report issued in September 2022. Maryland is part of the Washington DC–Arlington–Alexandria metro and Baltimore–Columbia–Towson metropolitan area. The Austin–Round Rock–Georgetown and Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington metros are both located in Texas.
States and districts with the largest negative lead deltas
The states that recorded double-digit negative interest were a bit of a mixed bag. Several states and districts with large populations weren’t popular with renters in Q4. Some showed negative migration interest all year, while others saw interest wane as the year progressed.
West Virginia
West Virginia recorded the lowest migration interest (-30.88 percent) in Q4. That’s down from a -11.41 percent lead delta in Q3. It’s also the second worst state for migration in the nation among states with at least 5,000 leads.
The state actually recorded strong positive migration earlier in 2022—18.95 percent in Q2 and 17.76 in Q1. It also has the smallest population (just under 1.8 million) of any state with a negative lead delta in Q4.
Virginia
Virginia, population 8.6 million, saw migration interest fall to -20.20 percent in Q4 the second lowest in the South during this survey period. It was also the third lowest state for migration interest in the entire country, among states with 5,000 or more leads.
Migration interest declined in Q3 as well, with a lead delta of -12.49 percent.
Migration interest in Virginia was positive in Q2 and Q1 at 7.43 percent and 7.47 percent, respectively.
Virginia’s also part of the Washington DC-Arlington-Alexandria metro, where rents increased 6.71 percent year-over-year between September 2021 and September 2022. That made it the twelfth most expensive community in the country.
Georgia
Over 10.4 million people call Georgia home. About 6.1 million of them live in the Atlanta–Sandy Springs–Alpharetta metropolitan area, which was also unpopular with renters in late 2022. It was the second highest metro for outbound migration in the nation in Q4, with a lead delta of -30.94 percent.
Georgia itself ended the year with a -19.38 percent lead delta. That’s the fifth lowest showing in the nation among states with over 5,000 leads. Low renter interest is nothing new — the state recorded negative lead deltas throughout 2022: -17.14 percent in Q3, 9.60 percent in Q2 and 8.09 percent in Q1.
District of Columbia
A population of over 6.3 million makes the Washington D.C. metro the sixth largest metropolitan area in the nation—and among the 12 most expensive metros in the U.S., according to a Rent. September survey. It logged a -13.27 percent lead delta in Q4.
Like Georgia, Washington D.C. also saw negative migration interest all year. Its best showing was -8.25 percent in Q3. That’s a marked improvement over -24.28 percent in Q2 and -50.80 percent in Q1.
Other states with negative lead deltas
Populous North Carolina (the ninth largest state in the nation) also had negative migration interest all year long. But at least this negative interest stayed in the single digits. Its -8.14 percent showing in Q4 is consistent with a -3.20 percent finish in Q3, -9.48 percent in Q2 and -7.64 percent in Q1.
Oklahoma logged a -1.46 lead delta in Q4. That’s a big drop from a positive showing of 10.33 percent in Q3 and 14.05 percent in Q2. But it’s comparable to the state’s -1.51 lead delta in Q1.
The two remaining states started the year strong with positive migration deltas during the first three quarters of 2022. But things shifted in Q4.
Florida, the third largest state in the U.S., with a population of over 21.5 million, ended the year with a lead delta of -2.20 percent. Rising year-over-year rents in large, highly populated metros like Miami, Tampa and Orlando may be dampening interest in The Sunshine State.
Kentucky recorded a -0.45 percent lead delta in Q4. It tempers strong (often double-digit) positive migration interest earlier in 2022.
The takeaway
Migration interest in the South went from first to worst in Q4. That’s a big change for a region that had been a desirable migration destination for much of 2022. A closer look reveals that declining renter interest in some of the most populated states and metros had an outsized influence on the results.
