Renters wanted to move to the Northeast at the end of last year. The Northeast recorded stronger migration interest than any other region during the last quarter of 2022, according to the Q4 2022 Rent. Migration Report. It’s the first positive showing for a region that had the lowest migration interest in the nation in Q3—and negative migration interest in the first half of the year as well.
Northeast migration trends at a glance
Migration interest in the Northeast wasn’t evenly distributed across all nine states in the region. A closer look reveals that states with large metropolitan areas showed negative migration interest this quarter. They also displayed consistent outmigration trends throughout 2022.
In contrast, states with smaller populations and less populous metropolitan areas showed positive migration interest both in Q4 and throughout the year. This migration may be fueled by consumer demand for lower rents, more space and/or additional amenities, according to the National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC) and Grace Hill’s 2022 Renter Preferences Survey Report.
How the Rent. migration calculates migration interest
Rent. researchers gauge interest in the rental listings by geographic location every quarter. User data is aggregated to learn where renters want to move and which places they want to leave behind.
The Q4 report includes data from the fourth quarter of 2022, including October, November and December, combined into a single measure called the “lead delta,” measuring the difference between the number of inbound and outbound leads as a proportion of all leads within a particular geographic area.
Geographies with more inbound than outbound leads have a positive lead delta, which indicates migration interest. A negative lead delta means a region saw more outbound searches than inbound searches and is decreasing in popularity.
A closer look at Northeast migration trends in 2022
Migration interest in the region rebounded strongly during the fourth quarter of 2022. The Northeast’s lead delta jumped to 3.36 percent in Q4, the highest level of migration interest recorded in this survey.
These results followed a -6.64 percent lead delta in the previous quarter — the lowest showing in the Q3 survey. This was the largest increase between Q3 and Q4 numbers of any geographic region. The Northeast logged a -6.50 percent lead delta in the Q2 Rent. Migration Report and -1.67 percent lead delta in Q1 Rent. Migration Report.
The Northeast was the least popular migration destination during the first three quarters of the year, so the Q4 reversal was good news for landlords and property managers in the region as a whole. Four states saw the biggest benefits.
Northeast states with positive lead deltas
The sharp rise in migration interest was driven by large lead deltas in four key states. They include New Jersey, Rhode Island, New Hampshire and Connecticut. All four states had positive lead deltas during every quarter of 2022, which indicates consistent renter interest throughout the year.
New Jersey
New Jersey was a regional leader with a lead delta of 36.33 percent in Q4. That’s both the highest lead delta in the Northeast and the second highest in the nation (of metros with at least 10,000 leads) during this survey period.
The Garden State also took second place nationwide among high-lead metros in Q3, finishing at 36.35 percent. The state also boasted a 24.56 percent lead delta in Q2 and a 17.94 percent lead delta in Q1.
Most renters (34.91 percent) interested in moving to the state already resided within its borders. But the next largest sources of leads came from New York (19.88 percent) and Pennsylvania (10.45 percent), the fourth and fifth most populous states in the country.
These states also share metropolitan areas that stretch into New Jersey, a fact that became increasingly relevant as the pandemic wore on. The Rent. Migration Reports from the latter part of 2022 revealed that renters were increasingly willing to cross state lines if they could remain in their current metropolitan area.
Rhode Island
Rhode Island is the Northeast’s least populous state. It’s also the smallest state in the U.S. by geographic area. But it was very popular with renters, recording a 24.95 percent lead delta in Q4.
Like other high migration interest states in the Northeast, Rhode Island demonstrated positive lead growth throughout 2022. Its highest level of migration interest was in Q3 (32.17 percent) and its lowest was in Q1 (6.65 percent). The Q2 number was 18.97 percent.
New Hampshire
New Hampshire was the third most popular Northeastern state with renters in this survey period. It recorded a 20.05 percent lead delta in Q4.
That’s a level of renter interest many states would envy. But it’s actually down a bit from New Hampshire’s previous showings of 31.30 percent in Q3 and 26.32 percent in Q2. The state also recorded a 6.31 percent lead delta during the first quarter of the year.
Connecticut
Connecticut rounds out the top four Northeastern states for migration interest. It recorded a 15.37 percent lead delta in Q4 2022.
That’s down slightly from 18.61 percent in the previous quarter. But it’s better than 6.83 percent in Q1 and 9.19 percent in Q2.
Northeast states with negative lead deltas
The remaining five states showed negative lead deltas in Q4. They also showed at least one other quarter of negative migration interest in 2022.
States with larger populations recorded more consistent outmigration interest throughout the year. New York, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania are home to the region’s three largest metros — New York City, Boston and Philadelphia. (They’re also among the most populous metropolitan areas in the country.)
Renters were especially keen to leave these large population centers last year. All three metros logged negative lead deltas in at least three quarters of 2022.
Maine
Renters wanted to get out of Maine last quarter. The state recorded a lead delta of -48.94 percent in Q4.
But since there were fewer than 10,000 leads during this survey period, the smaller sample size can make the final number look a bit dramatic. Maine’s current population is just 1,385,340 — far less than some of the metropolitan areas on this list. Since most renters want to stay in-state, this limits the pool of available leads.
To get a little context, it helps to look at long-term trends. Maine’s Q3 lead delta was also negative: -17.91 percent. But renters showed positive migration interest in Maine during the first half of the year. The state enjoyed a 16.42 percent lead delta in Q2 and a 16.87 percent lead delta in Q1.
Vermont
Vermont shows similar migration trends. The state’s -38.99 percent lead delta illustrates that renters were interested in leaving during the fourth quarter.
But smaller sample sizes are a factor here, too. It’s a challenge to get the 10,000 leads Rent. researchers prefer in a state with a total population of just 647,604.
Long-term trends mirror Maine, in that Vermont also recorded a -17.43 percent lead delta in Q3. But, like in Maine, renters were interested in moving into Vermont earlier in 2022. The Q2 lead delta was positive (4.37 percent), as was Q1 at 13.71 percent.
New York
It’s a different story in New York. The Empire State logged a negative lead delta in every single quarter: -19.75 percent in Q4, -44.04 percent in Q3, -34.76 percent in Q2, and -17.89 in Q1.
Low sample size certainly isn’t an issue in a state that’s home to the largest (and most expensive) metropolitan area in the country, New York–Newark–Jersey City. In fact, New York was the fourth highest state for outmigration in the entire country (among states with at least 10,000 leads) in Q4, with the most popular destination being nearby New Jersey (19.7 percent).
Massachusetts
Massachusetts also recorded a negative lead delta every quarter last year. The state scored a -4.94 percent lead delta in Q4, comparable to -4.50 percent the quarter before. Outmigration interest was a bit stronger in Q2 (-7.53 percent) and Q1 (-9.63 percent).
Many of the outbound leads came from renters who wanted to move out of the Boston–Cambridge–Newton metro, which also showed negative lead deltas of between -2.35 and -15.90 percent each quarter in 2022. Not only is this the eleventh largest metro in the country, but it was also the third most expensive in the nation in the fall of 2022. Renters found more space and cheaper rents in adjacent states like Rhode Island.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania recorded a -1.48 percent lead delta in Q4, following positive migration interest of 2.90 percent in Q3. Second-quarter and first-quarter numbers were also negative at -5.60 percent and -1.23 percent, respectively.
Many renters were interested in relocating within the Philadelphia metropolitan area, which is the seventh largest in the U.S. and includes parts of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware and Maryland. Delaware and Maryland are part of the Southern region of the U.S. Like New Jersey, they were big inbound migration winners in Q4.
The takeaway
The Northeast went from worst to first in migration interest at the end of 2022. Renters, landlords and Rent. experts will be watching to learn if this will be a long-term trend.
** Rent. uses the U.S. Census Bureau‘s regional definitions. The Northeast includes Connecticut, New Hampshire, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Vermont, as well as the Mid-Atlantic states of New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey.
