The pandemic sparked unique migration patterns. Nationwide childcare shortages, pandemic-related closures and a rise in people working from home meant that work/life balance looked radically different for many households. It also changed what renters needed their homes to provide and the distance renters were willing to travel to work.
A short commute or access to public transportation became less important as people spent less time at the office. But features that make working from home easier — like extra space, natural light and fast and reliable Wi-Fi — were vital. Moving away from the city center was now a viable and attractive option.
Among these trends, Rent. researchers have noticed patterns that give hints at where renters may decide to relocate as we move into a post-pandemic market. Elevated prices are here to stay, and Rent. has seen a general tendency to move away from expensive coasts towards the Midwest and South. But digging deeper, there is also contradictory evidence that points away from interregional moves to local moves away from big urban centers in the Northeast to neighboring states that allow renters to retain economic and social ties to their home metros in exchange for longer, less frequent commutes and relatively cheaper rents.
The Data – Rent.’s Migration Report
To track the movements of renters across the nation, Rent. researchers developed the Rent. Migration Report, and beginning in Q1 2022 began measuring migration interest by mining the site’s user data by geographic location. The survey calculates the “lead delta”— the difference between the number of inbound and outbound leads divided by all leads within a particular geographic area. A “lead” is a rental industry term that refers to a prospective renter who submits information to a management company signaling that they’re interested in a rental property.
Geographic areas with more inbound than outbound leads have a positive lead delta. This indicates that renters are interested in moving there. Areas with more outbound than inbound leads have a negative lead delta and are less popular migration destinations.
Regional migration trends
At a broad, regional level, all quarters in 2022 showed renters were migrating away from the Northeast and West to locations in the Midwest and South. In Q3 2022, the Northeast had the highest outmigration with a lead delta of -6.64 percent. The West recorded a lead delta of -2.70 percent. In contrast, states in the South and Midwest saw positive migration interest during this period. Renters were most interested in communities in the South with a 3.72 percent lead delta, while the Midwest came in just behind with a positive lead delta of 2.22 percent.
Much of this migration is correlated with cost. Almost half (48 percent) of the 25 most affordable metros for renters are located in the South. Another 36 percent are found in the Midwest. By contrast, the 25 most expensive metros for renters are split more evenly between geographic zones. Most (44 percent) are located in the West. Another 28 percent are found in the South and 24 percent are located in the Northeast. Chicago is the only Midwest metro on the list. But the map of the most expensive metros for renters reveals a distinctive pattern. The majority of these most expensive communities (18 out of 25) are located along the East or West Coast or in Florida.
Where renters want to move
At the state level, these regional trends break down. Of the 10 most popular inbound destinations, four are Northern states or border more than one of them. Delaware was the most popular state in Q3 2022 with a lead delta of nearly 40 percent. (Considered a Southern state by the U.S. Census, Delaware borders both Pennsylvania and New Jersey in the Northeast.)
A close third with a lead delta of 36.35 percent is New Jersey, followed by Rhode Island in sixth and New Hampshire in seventh, each with lead deltas above 30 percent. Slightly further down the list, Connecticut rounds out the top 15 with an 18.61 percent lead delta.
What all these states have in common is close proximity to a large, expensive metro along the Northeast Corridor, including Philadelphia, New York City and Boston. And as Rent. research has shown, most renters (even those in expensive metropolitan areas) want to stay as close to their current home as possible when moving.
According to a recent Rent. survey, more than 60 percent of respondents were likely to move to preferred destinations within the same ZIP code followed by the same city. Rent.’s migration report further supports this conclusion with the majority of lead submissions beginning and ending with the same metro.
New state, same metro
As these migration patterns have shown, the new needs of renters and their desire to remain local while seeking lower rents appear sticky as we move past the pandemic. Renters in the Northwestern states, where cities are well-connected by transit options and metropolitan areas spill over state lines, are well-positioned to realize these patterns.
Renters who work from home or in hybrid arrangements can save money on housing costs while still maintaining important social and economic ties within their original metro area. They’re able to move to a more affordable city, often across state lines, while still staying within their current metropolitan area.
New Yorkers can more easily seek rent refuge in New Jersey or Connecticut. Philadelphians can likewise find cheaper rents in the Garden State or in northern Delaware. And Bostonians can find relief in New Hampshire and even Rhode Island without giving up their connection to Boston.
New York’s loss is New Jersey’s gain
For example, New York renters consistently pay the highest rents in the country, including double-digit rent increases year-over-year last fall. So instead of moving to a different neighborhood or an outer borough, many moved to other locations in the Tri-State area.
They have a lot of options to choose from, since the New York Metro area is the largest in the world by landmass. It includes New York City, portions of Hudson Valley and cities in New Jersey and Connecticut.
If they couldn’t stay in New York, 16 percent of New York renters wanted to move next door to New Jersey. The state’s six largest cities — Newark, Jersey City, Elizabeth, Paterson, Edison and Lakewood — are all located within this metro area. This uptick in interest contributed to New Jersey’s 36.35 percent lead delta in Q3 2022, the second highest in the survey period.
Renters migrated from Philadelphia to New Jersey
New Jersey is perfectly positioned between the New York City metro and the Delaware Valley or Greater Philadelphia metropolitan area. In fact, Atlantic City, Camden, Cherry Hill and Vineland are located in New Jersey, but they’re also part of the Delaware Valley/Greater Philadelphia metropolitan area.
This large community also includes Wilmington and Dover in Delaware. At the state level, Delaware had the highest lead delta in Q3 2022 at 39.27 percent, which accounts for over 10,000 more inbound leads than outbound leads.
Philadelphia came in No. 16 on the list of the most expensive cities in the U.S. So a move to one of the New Jersey or Delaware cities within this metro area can help renters save money, while still keeping them relatively close to their current connections.
Migration growth in Connecticut
Six of the seven largest cities in Connecticut are also located within the New York metropolitan area. So it’s no surprise to learn that Hartford–New Haven metro enjoyed a bump in migration interest from New York renters too.
A high percentage of New York renters (20.78 percent) were interested in relocating to Hartford-New Haven. In fact, more renters were interested in switching states than moving to in-state destinations like Rochester, Elmira and Watertown. Rochester recorded a lead delta of 20.67 percent during this survey period. Watertown’s lead delta was 19.89 percent and Elmira’s came in at 18.40 percent.
The Hartford-New Haven metropolitan area intrigued renters from Boston, Philadelphia and other cities in the Northeast Megalopolis, too. Commuting several hours is much more manageable if it only happens a few times a month.
The renters’ eye moves to New Hampshire and Rhode Island
Rent prices are soaring in Boston too. In fact, rents in the Boston-Cambridge-Newton metro were the third highest in the country this fall.
Renters are finding a little relief in New Hampshire. Rents in Newton and Manchester (a Boston commuter suburb) are lower than in Boston and Cambridge. The Boston-Manchester area also attracted interest from renters in New York and Philadelphia, as well as folks in nearby Providence, Rhode Island.
Boston-Manchester residents were interested in relocating to Providence as well. The capital city is an urban center all on its own. But its proximity to Boston means it also serves as a Boston satellite city.
New Hampshire in general was popular with renters in 2022. It made the top five in the first three quarters of the year. It recorded a lead delta of 31.3 during the most recent survey period, coming in as the fourth most popular state for migration in the country.
The takeaway
At Rent., our researchers don’t see renter preferences for staying local, the benefits of working from home or the new needs for rental property changing any time soon. Likewise, although rent prices will ebb and flow, it is unlikely to give up the gains its has made since widespread pandemic discounts and renters will always want to get more for their money. As such, researchers believe we are seeing the beginnings of a new normal within the rental industry that sees the migration attitudes developed during the pandemic carrying over to the post-pandemic market.
The above observations were illuminated by the contradictions in regional and state migration trends due to the small size and close proximity of states in the Northeast and its cluster of large and expensive metros. More research needs to be done, but it is likely this trend is emerging else where as well. One candidate is Tyler, Texas, where in Q1 2022 nearly 40 percent of leads to the Tyler-Longview metro originated in Dallas-Fort Worth compared to 31.22 percent of leads that originated in Tyler-Longview itself. The city of Longview is a two-hour drive from the center of Dallas along I-20, but its rents at the time were nearly half, and the city had seen significant year-over-year decreases in one-bedroom prices that equated to a 46 percent decrease in rental costs when moving from Dallas to Longview.
