Since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, people’s ability to make monthly rent or mortgage payments has become increasingly difficult. Job losses and economic depression have stretched budgets and wallets tight. Across the nation, significant numbers of renters and homeowners were at increased risk of losing their homes and apartments or becoming unhoused entirely.
Just as each state has seen its own rises and falls in coronavirus infections, each state has had its own waves of home loss risk. Region by region, some states saw drops in adults at risk while some showed improvement. Since the U.S. Census Bureau began actively tracking foreclosure and eviction trends in August 2020, more than half of states across the nation now show a lower risk compared to a year ago.
Eviction or foreclosure risk climbed the most in two New England states and Mississippi
In the fall of 2020, New Hampshire residents felt little risk of home loss. Just 16.7 percent were at risk, the second-lowest of any state in the nation. However, by August of 2021, the number of residents at risk skyrocketed to 41.6 percent, now the 11th-most at risk in the nation. That’s the highest jump in both eviction trends percentage points and rank among any state.
That same danger was felt across the border in neighboring Vermont. The Green Mountain State had the fewest residents at risk anywhere in the country in fall 2020 at 12.8 percent. That jumped to 23.7 percent a year later, the sixth-largest increase of all states.
On the opposite end, New England neighbor Maine, however, actually fell from 42.4 percent in 2020 to just 23.1 percent in 2021, the second-largest decrease percentage points anywhere.
The state that currently finds the most citizens at risk from eviction and foreclosure is Mississippi, as the epicenters of the pandemic shift south. A year ago, 34.8 percent of Mississippians were at risk, 23rd in the U.S. Today that figure has risen to 56.4 percent. That’s the second-steepest eviction trends increase in risk rank of any state.
Home loss risk decreased the most for residents of these Great Plains states
A year ago in 2020, the state with the highest percentage of its population at risk of home loss was Nebraska. The Cornhusker State was the only state in the Union (besides Washington, D.C.) where more than half of all adults were in danger.
But by the same time a year later, the risk was down to 39.5 percent. That is still the 14th-highest risk in the nation, but its decrease in risk by 14.9 percentage points was the fourth-steepest of any state.
But by far the state with the best recovery in eviction trends risk was Wyoming. Back in August 2020, nearly 40 percent of adults were at risk, the 13th-highest state figure. Just 12 months later, the risk of home loss was cut down to 14 percent.
That reduction in risk by 25.3 percentage points was the largest among all states, and the only state at all dropping more than 20 points. As of August 2021, Nebraska’s current risk was now the second-lowest of any state.
These states are most representative and consistent with national eviction risk trends
Back in August of 2020, the home loss risk of the United States as a whole was right on par with the collection of states individually. Around a third of all Americans were in jeopardy of eviction or foreclosure. That would have ranked the nation right between 24th and 25th among the states.
But a year more into the pandemic, the percent of citizens at risk only dropped half a point. However, that still signified improvement. The U.S. in its entirety is now ranked between 19th and 20th. More than half of states now show a decline in risk.
The state with eviction trends most reflective on the nation as a whole was California. In August of last year, the state held the same risk as the full nation at 33.4 percent. A year later, home loss risk in California only improved by 0.1 percentage points, still just 0.5 percentage points worse than the U.S. average. On the other side of the average, Maryland was just 0.5 percentage points better than the national risk.
Consistent low and high-risk states
Minnesota had the most consistently low risk. In August 2020, just 18.3 percent of residents were at risk. A year later, that small number fell even further to 7.2 percent, the only state under 10 percent.
On the flip side, Missouri’s home loss risk was the most consistently high. Last summer, nearly 45 percent of Show Me Staters were at risk, fifth-worst in America. Twelve months on, the percentage points fell just 2.8 to 47.6 percent, now the third-riskiest state nationally.
Methodology
The eviction trends data used comes from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Pulse Survey. The survey evaluates what impact the pandemic is having on households across the country from a socio-economic view.
The metro areas included in this analysis are the 15 largest MSAs (Metropolitan Statistical Areas) in the country. According to the Census Bureau, percentages are based on reporting distributions and do not include the populations that did not report to specific items. The margin of error also differed state by state and week by week.
The data contained in this report is for public use by the U.S. Census Bureau. Rent. did not independently collect survey responses. Please refer to the U.S. Census Bureau for any specific questions regarding the methodology.
